Steeltown Blues:
Aliquippa Is
Fired Up and
Ready To Go

By Carl Davidson
Progressives for Obama

carld717@gmail.com

You knew something special was happening when the youngest, freshest face in the room got up, took charge and called the meeting to order-"Hello, I'm Scout Sanders, and welcome to the first meeting of Aliquippa for Obama!'

Sanders was a full-time Obama volunteer, a student from the University of Connecticut, and her bright smile and enthusiasm brightened up a room of about 30 residents of Aliquippa and a few other nearby towns.  Those who came were all ages, from young teenagers to retired workers in their seventies, a little more than half were African American, about two-thirds were women...

Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 20 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Independence Hall.  Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

This time, we look at PENNSYLVANIA.

From the subscription-only Roll Call:

The Republican National Committee is launching $3 million in independent expenditure television ads in four states, focusing on the energy issue.

The ad is slated to run on network and cable television in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and will highlight the differences between Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) on energy security.

This is good, our first look at how much McCain and the RNC can move people with their usual bull. It's all offense, too. The four states are Kerry Blue states. Let's grab the current Pollster.com composites for those four states, so we can use that as a baseline to see whether these ads move numbers:

Michigan:

Ohio:

Pennsylvania:

Wisconsin:

Update: Oops, obviously Ohio is not a Kerry state...

Mark Halperin (who yes, I know, sucks), is reporting:

The presumptive GOP nominee tells voters in an afternoon Pickersville, Pennsylvania town hall that the state will pick the winner in November — and he will be behind until right before the polls close.

Umm....

As We Celebrate Our Independence, It Is Time for Energy Independence.

On Friday July 4th we will celebrate Independence Day marking 232 years since our founding fathers declared that the United States of America would be an independent nation.  Back in 1776, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin and others showed courage, leadership and vision by drafting the Declaration of Independence creating a democratic government based on freedom and rights for the common people.  

Now, 232 years later, we need to see the same courage, leadership and vision from our elected leaders to declare independence again.  In 2008, the independence we need to declare is not from tyrannical leaders and an oppressive government but energy independence from foreign sources that have too much control over a product that is so vital to our nation.

crossposted from unbossed

Not just pretty good! Absolutely great! God's gift! According to Citi / Abertis Infraestructuras - the two companies who have formed a partnership to lease the PA Turnpike. And I am assuming that, given all the press releases and the hyper-aggressive marketing by these two, the benefit goes to Citi / Abertis.

It is just amazing what these guys are doing to sell the public on this lease!

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

MICHIGAN

Public Policy Polling (PDF). 6/21-22. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (No trendlines)

The Pollster.com composite now gives Obama a nice 46.5-40.7 advantage, finally turning the state blue after a few weeks of a McCain lead.

PENNSYLVANIA

Rasmussen. 6/19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/21 results)

That looks more like float with the MoE than a real gain, but at least it's trending in the right direction. This poll now pushes the Pollster.com composite score up to Obama 48, McCain 40.5.

This past week had important events scheduled every day ending with a very busy weekend.  Here is a brief rundown of the highlights of the week:

The first major joint debate between the 2 candidates in the 5th Congressional District was held on Tuesday at the CBICC luncheon.  The event was broadcast later that evening on PCN.  The feedback I’ve received is that the debate clearly showed the contrast where I stand on the important issues, both regional and national, and where my opponent stands.  The important topics addressed included healthcare, the Iraq war and the growing crisis of increasing gas and energy costs.

Rasmussen has just posted his most recent Pennsylvania poll, which has Obama widening his lead ever so slightly, to 46-42 (45-43, 5/21/08).

Interestingly

Obama’s gains have come primarily among men—Obama now leads by eight among males. Last month the candidates were essentially even.

1000 LV, +/- 3%, 6/22/08.

With 35 Senate seats being contested this year (33 plus 2 special elections), Democrats have only 4 female candidates: Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kay Hagan (NC), Vivian Figures (AL) and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA). That's a shamefully low number. The Republicans only have 2 incumbents, Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Susan Collins (ME), and one sole challenger, Christine O'Donnell (DE).

Overall, this is not a great year for women in the U.S. Senate. The overall outcome will be somewhere between minus 2 and plus 4 female Senators. The most likely outcome is somewhere between minus 1 and plus 1.

So, let's look ahead to 2010. Specifically, to which Democratic female politicians might or should run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

The floods in the Midwest have continued and I include some information where I can in the Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin sections. Best of luck to all readers in the hard hit areas.

This week I return to an issue I discussed before: Republican cronies litterally killing our troops with no government oversight. This week Democratic Sentor Bob Casey is demanding an investigation of the electrocutions due to bad wiring that have been plaguing our military bases managed by a Hallibruton subsidiary. More below.

Copyright Eyesonobama.com

By Jwilkesfrom Eyes on Obama:

Barack Obama is reversing an alarming trend for Democrats in Pennsylvania, polling well ahead of John McCain according to the latest presidential numbers. And if he can hang on there, it may bring the White House well within his reach come November.

CBS a couple days ago posted a Top Ten VP candidates. As a Pennsylvanian, I always get a little more interested when our politicians start getting mentioned.

Quinnipiac. 6/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (5/13-20 results)

The internals:

I thought that Obama wasn't able to win white people anywhere, especially Pennsylvania, because Clinton won that demographic! And wait, what's this? Obama wins non-college educated whites in the state 47-44? But I was told by the Clinton campaign and the media that it would never happen!

Of course, that was always b.s. And I don't mean to belabor the point, or open up old wounds, but it's important to remember that political spin and CW are oftentimes wrong, and sometimes comically wrong.

As for Pennsylvania, at this rate, this won't be much of a swing state for long. The Pollster.com composite score is Obama 48.7, McCain 40.1. But look at the trend lines:

Delicious, huh? Given the cost of contesting Pennsylvania, and McCain's poor finances, and considering the Obama campaign's massive organizing and voter registration in the state, Republicans may be forced to surrender the state with little fight. And with Pennsylvania secure, Obama can wreak even more havoc in supposedly safe Red States.

If you'll be in PA on June 19, you may be able to get to one of five single payer health rallies happening around the state.  Info below the fold.

Father's Day -- Our Day to Relax

Today being Father's Day, I'm getting extra special treatment from Amanda.  I was treated to breakfast this morning and afterwards, Kelly and Amanda headed to the community pool in Clearfield so I could relax for a couple of hours.  For all the fathers, soak up the special treatment today because tomorrow it's back to solving problems.

As I've mentioned, my brother is a political strategist. He promised to send me a message to the Obama community since he no longer posts at DKos, but it took him pretty much all weekend to do.

See, he has always been a huge admirer of Tim Russert, so he's a little bit down this weekend, but late tonight, I finally got his 10 county analysis that he promised.

So here it is, a simple message from my brother...win these 10 counties and Obama is the next President of the United States.